First Poll Following Debate
Zogby International came out with the first national poll about the Republican Primary following the GOP Debate on May 5th (Found above). Now it’s only one poll and it will be best to wait for a few more polls to come out following the announcements by Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
For 3 of the 5 candidates I would say I was very accurate, as Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul did not gain any significant support. I would actually say that Gary Johnson will probably have lost support to Ron Paul.
I figured Herman Cain would gain the most support from the debate and Pawlenty would inch his way to top tier status. I was semi-wrong about Cain and completely wrong about Pawlenty. Pawlenty having 4% of support following the debate can be seen as a missed opportunity with Romney and Gingrich starting to get more involved in their presidential campaigns. Herman Cain went from an individual with no chance to having 14% support. I said he wouldn’t get over 10%, but obviously more people now feel an attachment to the conservative from Georgia.
The next GOP Debate is scheduled for June 13, 2011 in New Hampshire. It would hurt Romeny if he skipped out on this debate, so I expect him, Gingrich, and all the other major players to be involved. Herman Cain getting the “Huckabee Bounce” should now be considered a top tier candidate with Santorum and Gary Johnson being relegated to the background. Ron Paul will stay in, but I am starting to think Pawlenty will drop before the end of the year.
GOP Debate Round #1
The first debate of the Republican Primary season took place tonight. Some say it was too early, but it took place around the same time 4 years ago with every major candidate taking part (minus Fred Thompson).
The most interesting part of the debate was the question dealing with one issue that will hamper each candidate’s candidacy. This played a major role in how I saw who won tonight. Also how they went at Obama when given the chance.
In order of the person that helped themselves the most:
1) Tim Pawlenty- He barely edged out second place because he was the most consistent throughout the debate with a clear message and presence that could be considered presidential. The Skeleton round hurt him the most out of anyone because of his prior support of cap-and-trade as governor of Minnesota. However, I would not be surprised to see him get a boost to just below 10%. There were no grand slam shots, so he’ll still fall short of Romney, Huckabee, and Palin numbers.
2) Herman Cain- He started off slow, but he ended well in the Skeleton round and the round dealing with beating Obama. He came off as likable and got off some really good lines. Could see a “Huckabee” boost where he was a second tier candidate that became a first tier candidate based on his personality and a development of a trust of the candidate. Probably go up to 5-7%
3) Ron Paul- Everything he said in 2008, he said again. Plus he looked like “Crazy” Ron Paul when talking about legalizing drugs.
4) Gary Johnson- Didn’t do anything to hurt himself, but he just looks like Ron Paul-lite. Failed to show personality…maybe too much hookah?
5) Rick Santorum- Came off as generic and should drop out soon to save himself time and money. Social Conservatives are likely to get behind Cain out of these five. The working woman question destroyed him.